Sleepless

So I'm up at 6 again.  For some reason, no matter how tired the rest of me is, my brain seems to be crazy active at 6.  Usually I'm steaming about recent events and wondering what I'm going to do next.  This morning I've been thinking about this guy:
Things are not looking good.  Got the following tweets from #iranelections: 

1. 
   iranelectionsGC Update: Mousavi and Karroubi did not show up to today's session, GC to confirm election outcome very soon.about 1 hour ago from web
       
2. 
   iranelectionstoday's 4pm demo has been called off. Editor of Etemad Melli Qoochani has been arrested. Mousavi and Rafs to issues communiques soon.about 1 hour ago from web

Indications are that it's over.  I guess we'll know later in the day whether people come out any way for the demonstration.  What I keep thinking, and what keeps me from going back to sleep,is that in spite of all the comparisons to 1979, things are so fundamentally different.

Khamenei is not the Shah.  People may not love him or his politics, but as a theocrat he wields such tremendous moral authority in that society that it's hard to fight.  When the fight is about Ahmadinajad it's one thing, but when the Supreme Leader puts himself at the center of the conflict, essentially saying, "if you keep this going, you're not defying the president-elect, you're defying me", it's a whole different ballgame.  

Before this, it was all about an enthusiastic wave of reform sweeping through the country - kind of like what happened here in the last election, with people really responding to the "Change" message of Obama.  Now, it's much more stark choice: revolution; and it just doesn't sound like Iran is able to go there just yet.

I guess we'll know soon enough.